A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
